Pace vs. Pick-up: The Truth Behind the Numbers
20 January 2026
Whether you are a seasoned revenue manager or a newcomer looking to sharpen your industry knowledge, this educational guide is designed to clear the confusion surrounding two of our most critical metrics. Mastering pace and pick-up is essential to driving hotel revenue growth.
In many hotels, "Pace" and "Pick-up" are treated as synonyms. But to a seasoned Revenue Manager, using them interchangeably is like a pilot confusing "altitude" with "climb rate." One tells you where you are; the other tells you how fast you’re moving. If you want to move beyond "heads in beds" and start driving true profitability, we need to clear the fog.
The Definitions: Movement vs. Comparison
To master your data, you must first categorize it correctly. Here is the clinical distinction:
- Pick-up (The "Movement"): This is the net activity that occurred during a specific window of time (usually "since yesterday" or "last week") for a future stay date. It is the delta. It answers the question: "How many bookings did we actually take since I last checked the system?"
- Pace (The "Comparison"): This is your current position relative to a specific benchmark—most commonly Same Time Last Year (STLY), but often your Budget or Forecast. It answers the question: "Are we ahead or behind where we should be at this point in the booking cycle?"
Think of it like a race: Pick-up is how fast you ran the last lap. Pace is whether you are currently in first place or trailing the leader.
The Thesis: Why You Need Both
You cannot build a proactive strategy without a deep understanding of both metrics. They serve two distinct functions in your tactical toolkit:
- Pick-up is your "Tactical Feedback Loop": It tells you if your current actions—like a flash sale, a new OTA promotion, or a price hike—are working right now.
- Pace is your "Strategic Early Warning System": It tells you if your long-term goals are at risk. You might have a great pick-up today, but if your pace is still 20% behind last year, you are still in a "recovery" phase, not a "growth" phase.
If you only look at pick-up, you’re flying blind to the finish line. If you only look at pace, you’re reacting too late to the market's daily shifts. Mastery lies in the intersection of the two.
Total Revenue: The "Volume vs. Rate" Dimensional Shift
To truly understand performance, we have to look past the top-line revenue number. Total revenue is built on two primary levers: Volume (how many rooms/units were sold) and Rate (the price at which they were sold).
In modern revenue management, seeing that your revenue is "up" isn't enough. You need to know how it got there. Did you sell more rooms at a lower price, or fewer rooms at a premium? This is where we apply our Pace and Pick-up definitions to the Volume vs. Rate lens.
1. Volume Pace vs. Rate Pace: The "Healthy Mix"
When we compare our position to last year (STLY), we look for the Variance.
- Volume Pace: Are we ahead or behind in Room Nights? If you are 50 rooms ahead of last year but your revenue is flat, you have a Rate Pace problem. You are working harder (higher operational costs) for the same result.
- Rate Pace: Are we ahead or behind in ADR? If your ADR is $20 higher than last year but your occupancy is 15% lower, you are running a "Yield" strategy. This is often more profitable, provided the volume drop doesn't leave the hotel feeling "empty" and hurting your ancillary outlets.
2. Pick-up: Are we "Buying" Volume or "Driving" Rate?
Daily pick-up tells the story of your current pricing power.
When you look at yesterday's activity, ask:
- "Was our pick-up Volume-driven?" (e.g., We picked up 30 rooms at a low rate.) This usually happens when you open up discounted channels or when a large group blocks out space.
- "Was our pick-up Rate-driven?" (e.g., We picked up 5 rooms, but at $100 above our average.) This indicates high demand or successful "fencing" of your lower rates.
3. The Total Revenue Perspective (TRevPAR)
Total revenue isn't just about the room; it’s about the "Total Guest."
- High Volume Pick-up is great for the F&B and Spa teams. More "feet on the floor" means more covers in the restaurant and more appointments in the spa.
- High Rate Pick-up usually attracts a higher-spending demographic. While you have fewer guests, their individual "ancillary spend" (the amount they spend on wine, room service, or parking) is typically much higher.
The Revenue Rule of Thumb: > If your Volume Pace is ahead, you have "filled the base." Your next move should be to slow down Volume Pick-up by raising rates to drive Rate Pace. This is the transition from "Occupancy" mode to "Profit" mode.
Understanding the Trade-off: A Quick Reference
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If Revenue Pace is UP via...
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The Operational Impact
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The Strategic Move
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High Volume / Low Rate
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High labor costs, more laundry, "busy" vibe.
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Raise Rates. You have enough demand; now make it more profitable.
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Low Volume / High Rate
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Lower labor costs, exclusive vibe, higher profit margins.
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Watch the "Floor." Ensure you don't drop so much volume that the hotel feels "dead."
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Distribution Channels & Feeder Markets: The "Who" and the "How"
Once you understand what is being booked (Volume vs. Rate), you must identify its source. Not all pick-up is created equal. A "Volume-heavy" day driven by a high-commission OTA is vastly different from a "Rate-heavy" day driven by your direct website.
1. Distribution Channels: Cost of Acquisition
Each channel has a different "Net Rate" (the money that actually hits your bank account after commissions). Analyzing channel pick-up through the Volume/Rate lens exposes the true cost of your strategy.
- The "Volume" Trap (OTAs): Third-party sites like Expedia or Booking.com are excellent for driving Volume Pick-up when you are behind on Pace. However, because of their 15–25% commissions, they are "Rate-dilutive."
- The "Rate" Champion (Direct): Your Brand.com site typically has the highest Rate Pace. When you see a pick-up shift toward your direct site, your "Net ADR" increases even if the "Gross ADR" stays the same.
Strategic Insight: If your Volume Pace is ahead of last year but your Net Rate Pace (after commissions) is down, you are likely over-relying on OTAs. It’s time to "throttle" the OTA volume by closing off discounted OTA-only promotions and shifting your marketing spend to direct channels.
2. Feeder Markets: Geographical Quality
Feeder markets (where your guests live) often dictate both the volume and the rate potential of your bookings.
- International/Long-Haul Markets: These markets typically drive Rate and Length of Stay (LOS). They book further in advance, which contributes to your long-term Pace.
- Local/Drive-to Markets: These are your Volume engines, especially for last-minute Pick-up. They are highly sensitive to weather and weekend events, but often demand lower rates or "staycation" discounts.
Analyzing the Shift: A Market Scenario
Imagine your Volume Pace for the summer is trailing by 10%. You look at your Feeder Market report and see:
- International Market Pick-up: Down 30% (High Rate lost).
- Local Market Pick-up: Up 20% (Low Rate gained).
The Diagnosis: You are replacing high-value international guests with low-value local guests.
The Action: To protect your Revenue Pace, you cannot simply chase more local volume; you must find a way to increase the "Ancillary Rate" (selling parking, breakfast, or late check-outs) to the local market to make up for the lower room rate.
The Channel & Market Matrix
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If you see...
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Volume/Rate Analysis
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The Strategy
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High OTA Pick-up
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High Volume / High Commission (Low Net Rate)
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Tighten OTA "fences"; limit inventory to higher room types only.
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High GDS/Corporate Pick-up
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Steady Volume / High Reliable Rate
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Focus on "Loyalty" and repeat business; prioritize these over OTAs.
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High Direct Pick-up
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The "Golden Ratio" (High Rate & Low Cost)
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Invest more in SEO/SEM to keep the momentum.
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Length of Stay (LOS) & Revenue Sources: Stability vs. Spontaneity
The final pieces of the puzzle are how long guests stay and why they are coming. These factors determine your "inventory elasticity"—basically, how much room you have to play with your rates.
1. Length of Stay (LOS): The Occupancy "Anchor"
Length of stay is the most significant driver of Volume Pace.
- The High-Volume/Short-Stay Trap: If your pick-ups are dominated by 1-night stays, you create "Swiss Cheese" in your calendar—lots of small holes that are hard to fill. This drives up operational costs (housekeeping/front desk) and forces you to stay in a "Volume-chasing" mindset to fill the gaps.
- The Rate-Protective Long-Stay: When you pick up 3+ night bookings, you are securing Volume Pace further in advance. This "Base" gives you the confidence to increase your Rate for the remaining 1-night gaps that late-booking business travelers or weekenders will inevitably fill.
Strategic Insight: Use your pick-up data to spot "shoulder date" opportunities. If you see high pick-up on Saturday but none on Sunday, don't just raise the Saturday rate—implement a "Minimum 2-Night Stay" restriction. This forces Volume into the Sunday (your weak spot) while protecting your Rate on the peak night.
2. Revenue Sources: Group vs. Transient
In the hotel world, Group business is your "Anchor," and Transient (individual) business is your "Yield."
- Group Pace (The Base): Group bookings (weddings, conferences, tours) are usually negotiated months or years in advance at a fixed Rate. They provide the Volume Pace necessary to feel secure. If your Group Volume Pace is ahead of last year, you can afford to be extremely aggressive (High Rate) with your Transient pick-up.
- Transient Pick-up (The Cream): This is the fluid, daily business that responds to your price changes. If your Group Volume Pace is down, your Transient business has to work twice as hard. You’ll find yourself forced into a Volume-play (lowering rates) just to fill the "hole" left by the missing group.
3. The "Root-Cause" Analysis
This is where the distinction between "What" and "Why" becomes critical. Using the Pace Analytics mindset we discussed earlier:
Scenario: Your RevPAR for next Tuesday is down.
The "What": Pick-up is flat, and Pace is 15% behind.
The "Why" (Drill-down): You see that a recurring Corporate Group (Volume) didn't rebook this year.
The Pivot: Instead of dropping your BAR rate for everyone (which dilutes your Rate), you target a specific "Feeder Market" or "Distribution Channel" with a limited-time offer to replace that specific lost Volume without signaling a "fire sale" to the whole market.
The LOS & Segment Strategy Matrix
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If you have...
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Volume/Rate Status
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The Recommended Strategy
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Weak Group Pace
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Low Volume Base
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You must chase Transient Volume. Consider a "3-for-2" night offer to build a base quickly.
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Strong Group Pace
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High Volume Base
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Time for a Rate-play. Increase BAR, close discounts, and implement LOS restrictions.
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High 1-Night Pick-up
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Risky Volume
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Protect your weekends. Use "Stay-Through" restrictions to force bookings into lower-occupancy days.
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Increasing ADR Pace
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Healthy Yield
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Watch your Cancellations. High rates often see higher "shopping around" and cancellation rates.
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Conclusion: Mastering the "Why" Behind the "What"
In the modern hotel environment, data is never the problem—clarity is. We are often drowning in reports, but starving for insights. By strictly defining Pace (your position) and Pick-up (your movement), and then filtering those metrics through the Volume vs. Rate lens, you move from being a reactive reporter to a proactive strategist.
Remember:
- Pick-up tells you if your price is right for today’s shopper.
- Pace tells you if your strategy is right for tomorrow’s budget.
- Volume vs. Rate tells you if your profit margins are healthy or if you are simply "buying" occupancy at the expense of your bottom line.
A high-occupancy hotel isn't always successful. The most profitable revenue managers are those who have the courage to slow down their pick-up to protect their rate, and the data-driven confidence to know exactly when to make that pivot.
The Revenue Manager’s Strategy Checklist
Use this during your weekly revenue meeting to ensure you are looking at the full picture.
1. The Pace Check (The Big Picture)
- [ ] Revenue Pace: Are we ahead or behind STLY/Budget?
- [ ] Volume vs. Rate Variance: If we are ahead, is it because of higher occupancy (Volume) or higher ADR (Rate)?
- [ ] The "Base": Is our Group and Contract volume pacing high enough to allow for aggressive Transient pricing?
2. The Pick-up Check (The Pulse)
- [ ] Net Movement: Did we have any "Code Red" days (negative pick-up/cancellations)?
- [ ] Velocity: Is our pick-up for [Target Date] accelerating or decelerating compared to the same week last year?
- [ ] The "Root Cause": If ADR dropped on a high-pick-up day, was it a technical error (zero-rates) or a specific low-value segment?
3. The Quality Check (The "Who" and "Where")
- [ ] Channel Mix: Is our pick-up coming from high-cost OTAs or low-cost Direct channels?
- [ ] Market Feeder: Are we losing high-rate international volume and replacing it with low-rate local volume?
- [ ] LOS Analysis: Are we filling our peak nights with 1-night "Swiss Cheese" bookings, or are we securing 3+ night stays that anchor our pace?
Final Thought
The goal of using sophisticated tools like Demand Calendar Hotel Business Intelligence isn't just to see the numbers faster—it's to spend less time "tab-hopping" and more time thinking. When you can see the "Why" behind the "What" in seconds, you gain the most valuable asset in hotel management: Time to be strategic.